Carabao Cup Winner Odds – Tips for Smart Betting in 2025

The first domestic knockout cup in England is the Carabao Cup. The competition, which features players who don't play regularly, is sponsored by the Carabao energy drink. The cup is played between four of the top tiers of English football: the Premier League, the SkyBet Championship, League One and League Two. If you asked a random student on a Tuesday or Friday, they probably wouldn't know about it.

These days, the competition for trophies in England means that some teams prioritize fielding their best XI in knockout cup competitions. Recently, Manchester City have been on a roll, winning four of their last six cups on this side of the calendar year. Find out which team they will face in the EFL Cup Round of 16.

As the Carabao Cup 2025 heats up, the outright betting markets are shifting fast - and timing is everything. As a soccer betting strategist who's been tracking English cup odds for years, I've put together this guide to help punters spot value early and avoid common traps. You'll find expert commentary on winner predictions, as well as a vetted list of secure sportsbooks that offer competitive lines and reliable payouts. Each recommendation is based on first-hand testing and rigorous evaluation criteria.

As the Carabao Cup 2025 heats up, the outright betting markets are shifting fast - and timing is everything. As a soccer betting strategist who's been tracking English cup odds for years, I've put together this guide to help punters spot value early and avoid common traps. You'll find expert commentary on winner predictions, as well as a vetted list of secure sportsbooks that offer competitive lines and reliable payouts. Each recommendation is based on first-hand testing and rigorous evaluation criteria.

The Carabao Cup betting odds are moving fast as the competition heats up. Three teams have already booked their places in the quarter-finals after Tuesday night's fourth round matches. This tournament has been full of drama from start to finish. Brentford ended Grimsby Town's fairytale run with a decisive 5-0 win as the defending champions prepare to defend their crown.

Newcastle United's remarkable story unfolded last season when they ended a 70-year domestic trophy drought by beating Liverpool 2-1. Liverpool are now 4/1 favorites to win the Carabao Cup, just ahead of Manchester City and Arsenal. Manchester City's impressive record makes this unsurprising - they've lifted the trophy five times in the last decade.

Understanding the Carabao Cup Format

The Carabao Cup, also known as the EFL Cup, has a unique format that greatly affects betting strategies and Carabao Cup winner odds. You need to understand this structure in order to make smart bets on the competition.

How the tournament is structured

The Carabao Cup consists of seven rounds to the final. Most matches are single legged, but the semi-finals require two legs to decide the winner. This creates more opportunities for upsets and the odds can change quickly throughout the competition.

The 2025-26 season introduced a new feature - a four-team preliminary round. Two newly promoted clubs from the National League (Barnet and Oldham Athletic) joined the two lowest non-relegated teams from League Two (Accrington Stanley and Newport County). This extra stage was necessary because nine Premier League teams were playing in European competitions.

The tournament moves through these stages:

• Preliminary round: w/c August 4, 2025
• Round One: w/c August 11, 2025
• Round Two: w/c August 25, 2025
• Round Three: w/c September 15 and w/c September 22, 2025
• Round Four: w/c October 27, 2025
• Round Five: w/c December 15, 2025
• Semifinals: January/February 2026
• Final: Sunday, March 22, 2026;

Bettors should know that matches go straight to penalties if they're tied - no extra time except in the final. This rule change went into effect for the 2018-19 season, making the "To Qualify" market a great place to bet on underdogs.

When top teams enter the competition

Teams enter the competition at different times, so Carabao Cup Final Winner odds change as matches progress. The first round starts with 70 teams from League Two, League One and the Championship, plus the winners of the preliminary rounds. This is followed in the second round by 11 Premier League teams that don't play in European competition.

Nine Premier League clubs (Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur) wait until the third round to start. These teams get an advantage by starting later, which explains why they usually lead the Carabao Cup Winner odds.

The 2025-26 tournament has a special rule - the Champions League and Europa League teams can't play each other early due to their busy schedules. Some teams may get easier paths because of this, which could make their odds look better.

Key differences from the FA Cup

The Carabao Cup differs from the FA Cup in ways that are important for betting purposes. The Carabao Cup only admits 92 professional clubs from the Premier League and the English Football League, while the FA Cup welcomes almost every team in English football.

In addition, early rounds are divided into North and South sections, creating local matchups. Smart bettors can find value by backing teams with strong records in their region.

The winner will earn a place in the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League play-offs. As the tournament progresses, the teams competing for a place in Europe will be looking to win and this will be reflected in the Carabao Cup Winner Odds.

The Carabao Cup may not be as prestigious as the FA Cup, but teams can win it earlier in the season - the final is played in March instead of May. This timing can make a big difference for teams that aren't doing well in the league or don't have other trophies to chase.

2025 Carabao Cup Winner Odds Breakdown

The latest betting markets give a clear picture of who the bookmakers are backing to win the Carabao Cup this season. The conclusion of round three has revealed some interesting patterns in the winner's odds that the astute punter will want to look out for.

Top 8 teams and their current odds

Manchester City and Liverpool are joint favorites to win the trophy at 4/1. These odds give both clubs exactly a 20% chance of winning it all. Arsenal are next at 9/2 according to some bookmakers, although others have them slightly higher at 5/1.

Chelsea are in fourth place at 6/1, but some markets are offering 7/1. Defending champions Newcastle United complete the top five at 9/1, giving them a 10% chance of retaining the trophy.

The remaining top contenders are:

• Tottenham at 10/1
• Brighton at 12/1
• Fulham at 14/1;

Liverpool have historically won more League Cups, yet Manchester City's odds remain low. This makes sense given City's impressive run of six trophy wins since 2014, which explains why bookmakers remain cautious with their pricing.

Biggest moves in odds since Round 3

The odds have changed quite a bit since the end of round three. Liverpool started at 5/1 but have dropped to 4/1 in most markets, showing a growing confidence in Arne Slot's side.

Arsenal's odds have fluctuated between 9/2 and 5/1 depending on the bookmaker. Their tough match against Brighton in the fourth round may explain this slight drift, as it could make their path to the final more difficult.

Newcastle United's odds tell an interesting story. They started at 10/1 before dropping to 8/1 or 9/1 after some strong early performances. Their odds could get even better if they beat Tottenham in round four.

Crystal Palace and Brentford have also seen their odds improve. Both teams are now 16/1 with some bookmakers, suggesting they could be dark horses to watch.

Table: Carabao Cup final winner odds comparison

Remember that odds often change based on team form, injuries and upcoming games. Always check the latest prices before placing a bet, as odds can change quickly as teams progress through the tournament.

If you like to back the underdogs, Cardiff and Swansea are both available at 100/1. Wycombe and Grimsby are real long shots at 250/1. The quality gap between these teams and the Premier League clubs makes their path to victory extremely difficult.

Top Contenders: Strengths and Weaknesses

Looking at the top teams, there are clear strengths and weaknesses that will affect their chances of winning the Carabao Cup as we head into the quarter-finals.

Arsenal: Defensive depth and rotation

Arsenal's defensive strength has been their greatest asset this season. They've conceded just three goals in all competitions. This record gives them an edge in tight cup games where a goal can often be the difference. Cristhian Mosquera was a natural replacement for William Saliba against Crystal Palace.

They also adapt well to player absences. Even without Bukayo Saka, Arsenal can bring on young talent Ethan Nwaneri and still maintain their attacking threat. However, since winning the FA Cup in 2020, Mikel Arteta's teams haven't done well in cup competitions - often going out early. This pattern could affect their chances as the competition gets tougher.

Manchester City: Squad depth and history

City have the best squad depth with 26 players averaging 26.4 years old. Players like John Stones can play multiple positions (CB/RB/DM). This gives Pep Guardiola plenty of options no matter how busy the schedule gets.

City's record in the competition speaks for itself - they've won it five times since 2014. The bookmakers have made them joint favorites to win the Carabao Cup, showing respect for their cup experience.

Chelsea: Inconsistent but dangerous

Chelsea's 4-3 win over Wolves told the whole story - brilliant one moment, shaky the next. Enzo Maresca's side built a 3-0 lead at half-time, but almost threw it away. They conceded three goals and lost Liam Delap to a red card.

They can change almost their entire team (10 new players against Wolves) and still score goals. Jamie Gittens showed this with an amazing volley in the 89th minute.

Newcastle: Defending champions' momentum

Newcastle's title defense remains on track after a 2-0 win over Tottenham in the quarterfinals. Eddie Howe's side next play at home to Fulham, a team they beat 2-1 in the Premier League.

Nick Woltemade, their most expensive signing ever, has fit right in with six goals in nine starts. Their form and recent success against Tottenham (six wins from seven) makes them real contenders.

Liverpool: Form vs. motivation

Liverpool have lost six of their last seven games, their worst run since 1953. Arne Slot's gamble of making 10 changes against Crystal Palace failed miserably. This raises concerns about their back-up options.

The league champions now face a brutal run of games (Aston Villa, Real Madrid, Manchester City) that could make things worse. Liverpool must find their winning ways quickly or they could lose their place as cup favorites.

Smart Betting Tips for the 2025 Carabao Cup

Betting on the Carabao Cup requires special knowledge that goes beyond regular Premier League betting. Here are five proven strategies that can boost your chances of winning when backing teams in this tournament. My analysis of recent competitions shows that these approaches work well.

1. Wait for confirmed lineups

You should time your bets after the teams have announced their line-ups, which usually happens one hour before kick-off. This timing is crucial for Carabao Cup games. Teams often rotate their squads in this competition. Some teams make completely different starting line-ups - Chelsea made 10 changes in their game against Wolves. These changes have a big impact on the results of matches. Lower league teams often field stronger teams than Premier League teams in the early rounds. Your chances of winning will increase if you check both the expected and official lineups before placing your bets.

2. Think about fixture congestion

The tournament schedule creates some interesting betting opportunities. Crystal Palace had to play four games in eight days after qualifying for the quarter-finals of the Carabao Cup. Teams in the Champions League face even greater challenges. Manchester City's Pep Guardiola has said he may field reserve teams when fixtures clash. Team performance and selection suffer from this packed schedule, which creates value in betting on underdogs playing tired favorites.

3. Track team form in cup vs. league

Teams often perform differently in the cup than they do in the league. Nottingham Forest and Southampton both reached the semi-finals in the 2023-24 season while struggling to stay in the Premier League. Past cup performance tells us more than current league position. You should back cup specialists regardless of their recent league results.

4. Use BTTS and Over 2.5 goals markets

The BTTS market works well in Carabao Cup matches. Success rates range from 43% to 59% over the last few seasons. More than 2.5 goals are scored in about half of all matches, ranging from 48% to 52% over five seasons. Liverpool's matches are particularly high-scoring, with 83% of their 2024-25 cup matches scoring more than 2.5 goals.

5. Avoid betting based on club prestige

Big clubs have historically dominated this competition - all but six winners since 2000 have come from the Big Six. But that doesn't guarantee a good bet. The knockout format and roster rotation policies mean that upsets are common. Team news and specific matchups are more important than picking favorites based on name alone.

Underdog Watch: Value Picks and Longshots

Smart bettors know there's more value beyond the favorites. Looking at the underdogs can reveal surprising Carabao Cup winner odds that are worth a second look.

Cardiff and Fulham: Can they surprise?

Cardiff City remain all but one of the Premier League teams, with odds ranging from 50/1 to 80/1. They showed promise by eliminating Championship side Wrexham, but Chelsea await them next - which could be the end of their journey. At odds of 16/1 to 20/1, Fulham are an interesting prospect, especially with Brazilian striker Kevin Macedo returning from injury. The £35 million summer signing has proved his worth by scoring five goals in his last four games for Shakhtar Donetsk.

Why Brentford and Palace are worth a look

Brentford's attack has been impressive with ten goals in their last five games. Their recent 5-1 win over Frankfurt suggests that their 18/1 to 21/1 odds may be undervalued. Crystal Palace are worth a look at 11/1 to 13/1. Their convincing 3-0 win over Liverpool shows that they can compete with the top teams.

How to hedge bets on longshots

Cup competitions make underdogs viable options, especially teams with strong home records and high-energy football. Smart longshot betting requires you to do just that:

• Track current form streaks
• study home advantage effects
• use "tie winner" markets for underdogs
• build away team accumulators at 71/1;

Final Verdict

The Carabao Cup offers exceptional betting opportunities if you look beyond the obvious favorites. Liverpool and Manchester City are odds-on favorites at 4/1, but experienced punters know that squad rotation and fixture congestion have a huge impact on the outcome of matches in this competition.

Manchester City's past dominance remains noteworthy, but their busy schedule may force Guardiola to focus elsewhere. Teams with a strong home record and a lighter schedule could bring significant returns.

The unpredictable nature of knockout football makes the Carabao Cup one of the most exciting betting markets of the season. Arsenal's defensive solidity, Chelsea's unpredictable attack or Crystal Palace's impressive performance against Liverpool all present opportunities. This competition rewards those who analyze specific match circumstances rather than just team reputations. The road to Wembley will bring more upsets before the victor lifts the trophy in March 2026.